My kids are going to space (fb)

Today was the maiden voyage of the first commercial spacecraft by Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic.  It was only a test, and it never got into space but...it will- not 50 years from now but in the next two or three.  This makes me giddy with excitement, not because of space but because it is such a brilliant example of how quantum change really happens- it isn't linear it's reactionary.

If we polled 100 people and asked them "when will commercial spaceflight happen and what will it look like?" ninety plus percent of them would say something like..."It will be decades if it happens in my lifetime and it will be in some big spaceship that looks kind of like the space shuttle, with a blast off and everything."  Leave it to Richard Branson to find the guys that are thinking radically different.  The current model of spaceflight was built in and for the industrial age:

Massive organizations
Thousands of specialists
Rockets required to launch the craft from ground into outer space
Extremely infrequent launches
Large space craft requiring large structures and propulsion
Only the largest and wealthiest governments can afford to participate
Government sponsored space "programs"
Passengers are physical and intellectual elites that have gone through years of training

But here is how Virgin Galactic saw the future:

Smaller organizations
Less specialization and more borrowing from a variety of technologies and industries
Planes perform the final launch from 60,000 feet
Frequent launches
Small craft requiring small structures and propulsion
Thousands and eventually hundreds of thousands able to participate
Private "firms"
Passengers are normal Joes (that have a lot of money- at least at first!)
Training takes three days initially (I'll bet they get that down to one day within the first 5 years)

Wired magazine makes the point this month that the Apple ipad will forever change personal computing- no more mouse or keyboard or clumsy case.  Today the Church in America is Commodor 64, but it will be iPad, not iMac.  It won't be more and better of what we currently think of as "best practice."  It will be  different- quantum different.  I'm a Church lover- I don't know what you love.  But if you're a pioneer, avoid the trap of thinking linear change and train your mind to think quantum, which normally begins by changing all the questions.  And if you're a settler- don't stress out- just enjoy the ride and let the pioneers lose sleep about space travel, smart homes, communication technology, sustainability, urban planning, local food... And while we're glancing out the window wondering what the first moon village will be like you'll be full of joy, in the moment, awed by the vastness of space:)